With the increasing penetration rate of the electrification of global automobile, the driving motor industry will develop rapidly on the overall scale. In this process, third-party motor manufacturers with scale and technological advantages will have the opportunity to rapidly expand market share and reap substantial growth in performance. Today, AIP explains that for you:

1  the trend of the global driving motor market
According to estimation, with the electrification of global automobile rapidly developing, new energy automobile motor system market will rapid expansion, the market scale is hopeful to develop, from 2300 million dollar in 2015 to 31800 million dollar in 2030.

(million unit)

Data sources: RGL association, Monetta sort it out
2 The motor market conditions
We predict the annual growth rate of motor sales (excluding inverters) to reach 18% in 2030, and the total industry sales volume to reach $19.5 billion in 2030, nearly 17 times higher than the level of $1.2 billion in 2015.

Sales volume of electric motors is predicted to rise from 3.6 million in 2015 to 49 million in 2030. Meanwhile, the number of hybrid vehicles with single-motors is predicted to decline from 1.8 to 1.4, mainly due to the increase of the sale proportion in pure electric vehicles with single-motor. At the same time, it will promote the development of motor testing industry.

However, we predict a further increase in the unit price of motors, from the current $350 rising to $380, mainly driven by the wider using of high-priced high-power motors.

Motor and inverter sales volume (2015-2030 sales revenue)

Analyze from market share condition, Toyota group is far ahead in 2016 (the group mainly produces electric motors including Denso and Aisin Seiki precision machinery), while HONDA group is in second place, and both of them are global leaders in the field of hybrid. After them are BYD and Fukuta Elec. & Mach motor, a Taiwanese manufacturer of electric motors that supplies Telsa.
In the long-term development of the motor industry, the rise sharply of third-party suppliers will be the general trend. If we observe the current industrial chain of the Japanese automobile industry, it is not hard to find that the top three leading companies (Toyota, Honda and Nissan) all tend to supply their own motor products by themselves, which is not only related to the traditional genes of Japanese manufacturing enterprises, but also related to the development stage of the industry.
If a comparison of PC and mobile phone industry development history, it is easy to find, the two industries are highly integrated upstream and downstream in the early production, whether in the PC industry of HP, Apple, SGI, or a mobile phone industry of Nokia, Motorola have highly integrated production in the industrial chain, because in the early product upgrading faster, upstream suppliers need to quickly respond to cooperate with each other, so the integration of production mode is with high cost performance;

Industrial chain integration of the automobile industry

Industrial chain integration of PC

Industrial chain integration of mobile phone

Share chart of global motor industry branch in 2017

Main engine plant and corresponding motor supplier

3 Inverter industry conditions
We predict that the inverter industry will also experience rapid growth, with the estimated sales revenue size of the inverter market rising from $1.2 billion in 2015 to $13.3 billion in 2030.

Analyze from the sales volume, since the ratio of inverters to motors is about 1:1, the total sales volume is expected to rise from 3.6 million in 2015 to 49 million in 2030.
At the same time, the supporting price of bicycles will drop from $300-$400 to $200-$300, mainly due to the cost scale effect after the volume increase.
   
Similar to the motor field, Toyota group is also in the leading position in the inverter industry. Meanwhile, Denso group, a subsidiary of Toyota group, is expanding its inverter customers. After Toyota, Mitsubishi motor also occupies considerable market share.

The comprehensive test system of electric automobiles produced by AIP is applied to the rapid and accurate test of the comprehensive electrical performance parameters of motors. The system takes the test wire clip mode to clamp test, and the motor compatibility of different specifications is strong. The test items can be increased or reduced or customized according to product characteristics and requirements. After the completion of the test, the sound and light alarms of qualified and unqualified are given. The company has always been adhering to the “customer-centric, striving-oriented” business philosophy, and constantly improves the motor testing solutions, to participate in the global motor testing industry competition. 

4 Technology evolution
Analyzing from the classification of motor, there are mainly DC motor, AC induction motor, permanent magnet synchronization motor and switched reluctance motor four kinds of motor, new energy automotive motor mainly used in the last three.
At present, permanent magnet synchronization is the mainstream motor because of its better performance. The price of AC asynchronous motor is moderate, but its performance is poor, and it is used by some manufacturers in America and China. The main advantage of switch reluctance machine is its low price, but there are also technical problems of noise and vibration. If these problems can be solved, switch reluctance machine would have a large market.

5 Direction of motor technology improvement

After studying the evolution trend of motor technology in the past 20 years, we find that motor technology still has greater room for further improvement. Firstly, analyze the thickness of the core steel. For the stator and rotor, it is mainly composed of thin layers of electromagnetic steel, which are superimposed on top of each other, the first generation Toyota PRIUS in 1997 used a 0.35mm steel layer, which was subsequently reduced to 0.3mm and was recently reduced to 0.25mm in 2016. In a general way, the increase of the number of thin steel layers can increase the efficiency of motor and help control the temperature of motor. At present, man thin steel is a major technical problem in the industry. The main difficulty lies in controlling resilience in die casting and maintaining the material consistency of steel sheet. Under current circumstance, rotary forging technology will become the principle manufacturing method in the industry due to its advantages in cost and production efficiency.

Finally, in the aspect of cooling system, there are two parts: motor and inverter: in terms of motor. As the magnetic force of permanent magnet motor decreases with the increase of motor temperature, the efficiency of cooling system is crucial for high-power operation of motor.